Why 90% of Major Transport Projects Blow Their Budgets: It’s Not Just Incompetence

A staggering nine out of ten major transportation projects exceed their initial budgets, and while incompetence, bureaucracy, and bad faith are often blamed, the real reasons run deeper. According to experts, cost overruns are frequently driven by predictable political and psychological pressures, not just mismanagement. Project planners routinely underestimate costs and overestimate benefits to secure approval, a phenomenon known as 'strategic misrepresentation.' Once underway, projects face scope changes, unforeseen geological conditions, and lengthy delays that compound expenses. This matters because taxpayers ultimately foot the bill, and overruns can erode public trust in infrastructure spending. Understanding the true drivers—from optimism bias to political incentives—can lead to better forecasting and accountability. The next time a megaproject busts its budget, look beyond the headlines of waste: the system itself is wired for overrun.