Can Crowds Predict the Future? One Million Forecasts Show Remarkable Accuracy—But Not for Elections or Wars

A new study from Tel Aviv University analyzed over one million forecasts to explore whether crowds can predict future events. The research found that collective predictions—often made through trading on belief—come remarkably close to actual outcomes in many areas. This suggests that the wisdom of crowds can be a powerful tool for forecasting, especially when diverse participants aggregate information. However, the study also reveals significant limitations. When it comes to high-stakes, complex events like international conflicts and elections, the odds may tell a different story. These events often involve unique dynamics, misinformation, or emotional biases that reduce crowd accuracy. The findings matter because they help us understand when to trust collective intelligence and when to be skeptical—critical for decision-makers in business, policy, and beyond. As we refine forecasting methods, the key takeaway is that crowds offer clues, not certainty, especially in unpredictable domains.