Atlantic Ocean Current Collapse Risk Missing From National Climate Plans, Scientists Warn

Icelandic government officials recently convened to confront a chilling possibility: the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), a system of currents that regulates global climate, could weaken dramatically or collapse entirely within this century. Such an event would trigger catastrophic and cascading consequences—from plunging European temperatures and shifting monsoon patterns to accelerating sea-level rise along the U.S. East Coast. Yet a new analysis reveals that this risk is virtually absent from almost all national climate adaptation and mitigation strategies. While countries focus on gradual warming, they overlook the potential for abrupt, nonlinear tipping points. The AMOC has already slowed by about 15% since the mid-20th century, and recent studies suggest a collapse could occur as early as 2050 under current emissions scenarios. The meeting in Reykjavik signals growing alarm among scientists and some policymakers, but the gap between scientific warning and policy action remains dangerously wide. Including AMOC collapse in national risk assessments is not just prudent—it is essential for building resilient economies and societies. The time to prepare for the unthinkable is now.