Goldman’s Jeff Currie Says Take Oil Profits Now, But Supercycle Is Far From Over

Jeff Currie, Goldman Sachs’ closely followed head of commodities research, is telling clients to lock in profits on crude after a massive run this year, but he remains a long-term bull on the structural oil supercycle. With U.S. midterm elections looming, Currie sees a tactical turning point that could pressure prices in the near term, even as supply constraints and underinvestment continue to support higher prices over the next decade. Currie, one of the most prominent oil strategists on Wall Street, has been a vocal advocate of the commodity supercycle thesis—the idea that years of underinvestment in new supply, combined with rising demand, will keep energy prices elevated for years. But he now argues that the market has priced in many of the near-term risks, including the impact of OPEC+ production cuts and the European Union’s ban on Russian oil, making it a good moment to take profits. The timing is notable: U.S. midterm elections on Tuesday could shift energy policy, and a potential economic slowdown in 2023 may dent demand. Currie’s call is not a reversal of his long-term view, but a tactical adjustment. He expects oil to remain volatile, with Brent potentially retesting $100 a barrel later in the year, but sees better risk-reward after a pullback. For investors, the message is clear: don’t confuse a short-term top with the end of the cycle. The structural drivers—years of underinvestment, spare capacity at historic lows, and the energy transition’s unintended consequences—are still in place. As Currie puts it, the supercycle is intact, but even the strongest bull markets need to breathe.