Morgan Stanley Warns Brent Crude Could Hit $150 on Strait of Hormuz Supply Risks

As global geopolitical tensions rise, Morgan Stanley has warned of a potentially devastating supply shock in the oil market. Analysts suggest that any disruption to the Strait of Hormuz—the world’s most critical maritime energy artery—could trigger a massive price surge, pushing Brent crude toward $150 per barrel by the summer. The report highlights a growing disconnect between current market prices, which reflect concerns over soft demand, and the severe, unpriced risks posed by regional instability. Because approximately 20 to 30 percent of the world’s oil flows through this narrow channel, a closure would create an immediate, unmanageable supply shortfall. While some investors rely on domestic production increases to buffer against such risks, the globalized nature of energy pricing means that all markets would feel the inflationary sting. The forecast underscores a 'race against time' as analysts warn that the current period of relative stability in the markets may be masking an impending systemic crisis that could drastically alter the global economic outlook.